Structural Vulnerability Assessments Conducted in Madagascar

Stakeholders from the Government and Civil Society in Madagascar met in Antananarivo from 22 – 26 October to review the COMESA Peace and Prosperity Index forecasted drivers for the country. The index drivers are depicted under different clusters of the COMESA Early Warning System (COMWARN) Structural Vulnerability Assessments (SVAs) model.

The COMWARN SVA model is theory-informed, data-driven and evidence-based assessment of structural vulnerability. It uses the COMESA Peace and Prosperity Index (CPPI) to track both regional and country-specific structural factors to peace and prosperity. The CPPI consists of four indicators namely Peace, Health, Wealth and Trade Openness derived from Article 3 of the COMESA Treaty. The index offers a timely diagnosis of forecasted structural drivers associated with future peace and prosperity.

In 2016 the COMESA Council of Ministers directed COMESA to conduct multi-stakeholder consultation workshops at the country level to raise awareness on the CPPI. Since then, COMESA Secretariat through the Governance, Peace and Security Unit has been holding SVA consultations in Member States, with Madagascar becoming the fourth host after Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

Participants in the Madagascar forum were drawn from government agencies representing Foreign Affairs, Health, Interior and Decentralization, Justice, Finance and Budget, Education, Office of the Prime Minister, National Reconciliation Commission, Defense as well as from the Anti-Corruption Commission and Civil Society Organizations.

The forum recommended the establishment of a response mechanism to be coordinated by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. A Steering and Technical Committee will also be formed to oversee implementation and help disseminate the CPPI forecasted drivers to the grassroots. In addition, the participants recommended that Madagascar accedes to the AU conflict prevention and mitigation process, which will lead to the establishment of a Situation Room.

To support the process, the African Union Continental Early Warning System (AU CEWS) participated in this consultative workshop and presented the Continental Structural Conflict Prevention Framework (CSCPF).

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