Lusaka, Zambia Friday, 25 April 2025 – The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) Secretariat has announced that eight of its Member States are set to encounter serious trade challenges due to new reciprocal tariffs instituted by the United States government. The anticipated repercussions of these tariffs could lead to significant reductions in trade volumes for the concerned countries in the year 2025.
The affected countries include the Democratic Republic of Congo: 11%, Libya: 31%, Madagascar: 47%, Malawi: 17%, Mauritius: 40%, Tunisia: 28%, Zambia: 17% and Zimbabwe: 18%.
A policy brief titled “Implications of the U.S. Tariff on COMESA: A Game Theoretic Approach to Trade Negotiations” compiled by the Division of Trade and Customs at the COMESA Secretariat, highlights that while the U.S. is not a primary trading partner for the COMESA region, these increased tariffs are poised to create significant supply and demand shocks across Member States. The resulting high production costs and consumer prices in the U.S. will likely contract its economy and further depress demand for exports from COMESA countries.
Key exports from COMESA, such as Kenyan textile products and Zambian copper, will face inflated prices in the U.S. market, while the prices of essential capital goods from the U.S. will rise. Trade statistics reveal that COMESA’s share of exports and imports to the U.S. ranged between 3% to 4% and 4% to 5% respectively during the years 2019 to 2023.
Dr. Christopher Onyango, the Director of Trade and Customs, noted that the U.S.-Africa trade framework has historically been defined by the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) enacted in 2000. This act granted preferential access at zero tariffs for numerous products from qualifying African countries to the U.S. market, reflecting their relatively lower socio-economic development levels. The new tariffs posed by the U.S. represent a stark departure from AGOA’s intent, which was originally advocated by the U.S. government itself.
The uncertainty around AGOA raises concerns that these tariff policies may result in substantial production cuts and massive job losses across African economies. Currently, 35 African nations qualify for AGOA, including ten COMESA Member States: Comoros, Democratic Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Eswatini, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Rwanda, and Zambia.
Moreover, there is heightened apprehension regarding potential retaliatory measures from major trade partners like China and the European Union. These entities, which represent COMESA’s largest export and import markets—accounting for 24% to 40% and 9% to 13% of trade respectively during the period from 2019 to 2023—could exacerbate the challenges facing COMESA countries. Estimates suggest that the combination of U.S. tariffs and possible retaliatory tariffs could result in a global GDP decline of 0.43%, adversely affecting demand for COMESA exports, which heavily relies on extra-COMESA trade.
In response to this pressing economic threat, the policy brief advocates for the adoption of a variable cooperative game strategy. This includes facilitating open negotiations and binding agreements with the EU, China, Japan, India, middle East and other like-minded nations to open trade doors. The African Union Commission is urged to engage with the U.S. government to discuss the ramifications of the ongoing tariff disputes and to reinforce the need for a rule-based international trading system.
Additionally, a call for the consolidation of continental and regional economic integration will further amplify COMESA’s voice to boost intra-African trade and investment. Implementing regional value chains and reducing dependency on external markets will be vital. Furthermore, increasing investment from African financial institutions including the African Development Bank (ADB), ExIM Bank, Trade Development Bank, among others, to enhance physical infrastructure—such as roads, railways, and airports—is essential to support connectivity and sustainable industrial development.
The COMESA Secretariat remains committed to protecting the interests of its member states and advancing initiatives that will strengthen economic resilience across the region.
Ends.